Minnesota Twins vs San Diego Padres - Game Analysis | StatScope
Away
Minnesota Twins
5
VS
Home
San Diego Padres
7
FinalInning 9
Team
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
R
H
E
MIN
1
2
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
5
10
1
SD
0
1
0
0
0
1
4
1
-
7
10
0
Win Probability
High confidence
Minnesota Twins
34.8%
San Diego Padres
65.2%
66-72Record73-65
46.8%Expected Win%51.2%
-46Run Diff+15
5.60Starter ERA3.45
5.32Starter FIP3.45
How to Read This Minnesota Twins vs San Diego Padres Analysis
Below this summary you'll find, in order: a head-to-head team stats comparison (runs, wOBA, OPS, ERA, WHIP), a deep dive on the two probable starters with FIP, BABIP, K% and BB%, a bullpen breakdown, a lineup view with each hitter's season sabermetric line, and finally our win-probability, moneyline, over/under, and run-line (-1.5) projections. The numbers are pulled live from the official MLB Stats API each time this page loads.
Our projections come from the StatScope v2.2 win-probability model. It blends Pythagorean expectation with starter FIP, bullpen ERA, lineup wOBA, a 30% weight on the last 30 days of form, Log5 matchup logic, a 6.6% home-field bonus, the park factor of Petco Park, and a 22% regression toward league average. The weights were grid-searched on 246 historical games (Brier score 0.2336), and the full methodology is documented on our methodology page. Remember: these are model estimates, not picks. Use them as one input alongside news, weather, and the sportsbook line — and always bet responsibly.
Kyle Hart (padres) entered with 1 runner on base, allowed 1 to score. Let 1 inherited runner come around to score.
⚠
High-Leverage Entry
Griffin Canning (padres) entered with 1 runner on base, allowed 0 to score. Successfully navigated the jam.
⚠
High-Leverage Entry
A.J. Minter (twins) entered with 2 runners on base, allowed 1 to score. Let 1 inherited runner come around to score.
StatScope Analysis|Post-Game Analysis
San Diego Padres tops Minnesota Twins 7-5
Game Summary
San Diego Padres defeated Minnesota Twins 7-5.
The turning point came in the bottom of the 7th. San Diego Padres pushed across 4 runs to seize control of the game.
Key Players
Luke Keaschall led Minnesota Twins's offense, going 2-for-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI. Minnesota Twins starter Dean Kremer threw 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 K and anchored the pitching staff.
Jackson Merrill led San Diego Padres's offense, going 2-for-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI. San Diego Padres reliever Griffin Canning threw 3.1 IP, 0 ER, 1 K and earned the win.
Pitching Report
Minnesota Twins starter Dean Kremer: 5.1 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 5 K, 3 BB (101 pitches). Bullpen: 2.7 IP, 2 ER, 4 K (ERA 6.75).
San Diego Padres starter Casey Mize: 2.2 IP, 4 H, 4 ER, 0 K, 1 BB (47 pitches). An early exit before recording 3 full innings. K/BB ratio of 0.0 points to command issues. 3 HR allowed is a troubling rate of long-ball damage. Bullpen: 6.3 IP, 1 ER, 3 K (ERA 1.42).