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| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CWS | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| SEA | 0 | 1 | - | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Chicago White Sox
51.4%
Seattle Mariners
48.6%
Below this summary you'll find, in order: a head-to-head team stats comparison (runs, wOBA, OPS, ERA, WHIP), a deep dive on the two probable starters with FIP, BABIP, K% and BB%, a bullpen breakdown, a lineup view with each hitter's season sabermetric line, and finally our win-probability, moneyline, over/under, and run-line (-1.5) projections. The numbers are pulled live from the official MLB Stats API each time this page loads.
Our projections come from the StatScope v2.2 win-probability model. It blends Pythagorean expectation with starter FIP, bullpen ERA, lineup wOBA, a 30% weight on the last 30 days of form, Log5 matchup logic, a 6.6% home-field bonus, the park factor of T-Mobile Park, and a 22% regression toward league average. The weights were grid-searched on 246 historical games (Brier score 0.2336), and the full methodology is documented on our methodology page. Remember: these are model estimates, not picks. Use them as one input alongside news, weather, and the sportsbook line — and always bet responsibly.
Chicago White Sox Away Starter
IP
2.1
K
3
ER
1
H
2
BB
1
Pitches
42
W-L
2-3
Season IP
50.2
Season K
44
ERA
4.09
Season Record
| # | Player | Pos | AB | H | HR | RBI | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sam AntonacciBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| LF | 2 | 1 | - | - | |||||||
| 2 | Munetaka MurakamiBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 1B | 2 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 3 | Andrew BenintendiBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| DH | 2 | 1 | - | 1 | |||||||
| 4 | Colson MontgomeryBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 3B | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 5 | Chase MeidrothBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 2B | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 6 | Jarred KelenicBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| RF | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 7 | Tristan PetersBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| CF | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 8 | Drew RomoBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| C | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 9 | Luisangel AcuñaBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| SS | 1 | 0 | - | - |
| Pitcher | IP | Pitches | H | R | ER | K | BB | HR | Result | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sean BurkePitcher - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Batters
| 2.1 | 42 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | - |
Bench Pitchers (Did Not Pitch)
| Pitcher | IP | Pitches | H | R | ER | K | BB | HR | Result | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson HancockPitcher - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Batters
| 3.0 | 56 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | - |
Bench Pitchers (Did Not Pitch)
white-sox 1 - 1 mariners. A standard game between both teams.
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StatScope Model v2.2— Pythagorean expectation, starter quality, recent form, home advantage
Moneyline
Chicago White Sox
-106
Favorite
Seattle Mariners
+106
Underdog
Over / Under
8
Total Runs Line
3.9 + 4 = 7.9
Expected: Chicago White Sox + Seattle Mariners
Run Line (-1.5)
Even -1.5
Expected margin: +0.1 runs
Projected odds based on team stats, pitching matchup, and park factor. Not affiliated with any sportsbook.
Seattle Mariners Home Starter
IP
3.0
K
3
ER
1
H
2
BB
3
Pitches
56
W-L
3-2
Season IP
56.2
Season K
59
ERA
3.02
Season Record
| # | Player | Pos | AB | H | HR | RBI | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cole YoungBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 2B | 1 | 1 | - | - | |||||||
| 2 | Julio RodríguezBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| CF | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 3 | Josh NaylorBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 1B | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 4 | Randy ArozarenaBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| LF | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 5 | Luke RaleyBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| RF | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 6 | Dominic CanzoneBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| DH | 1 | 1 | - | 1 | |||||||
| 7 | Patrick WisdomBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 3B | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 8 | Colt EmersonBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| SS | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 9 | Jhonny PeredaBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| C | 1 | 0 | - | - |
Bot 3: Chicago White Sox and Seattle Mariners are locked in a tight battle, knotted at 1-1.
2026 season
Avg wOBA
0.312
Avg OPS
0.708
Pitching FIP
3.71
Pitching K%
18.82%
▸wOBA .350+: 2 players — elite offense
▸High K% (28%+): 2 players
▸FIP 3.50 or below: Davis Martin 2.39, Bryan Hudson 2.8
▸Strikeout (K% 25%+): Davis Martin 27.4%
Avg wOBA
0.299
Avg OPS
0.663
Pitching FIP
2.80
Pitching K%
27.85%
▸High K% (28%+): 3 players
▸FIP 3.50 or below: Alex Hoppe 2.03, Andrés Muñoz 2.89, Bryce Miller 3.01, Bryan Woo 3.27
▸Strikeout (K% 25%+): Alex Hoppe 25.6%, Andrés Muñoz 39.5%