Today's starting pitching matchup features Seattle Mariners's Bryan Woo (1-2, 2.25 ERA) against St. Louis Cardinals's Matthew Liberatore (0-1, 3.67 ERA).

Seattle Mariners's Bryan Woo posts an elite 2.25 ERA this season, while Matthew Liberatore has been league-average at 3.67. There is a clear gap in starting pitching quality.

Advanced metrics: Bryan Woo — FIP 2.23, K% 21.1%, 32.0 IP / Matthew Liberatore — FIP 5.43, K% 13.7%, 27.0 IP

2026 season record: Seattle Mariners 12-15 (.444), St. Louis Cardinals 14-11 (.560).

St. Louis Cardinals holds the edge in the season standings, though Seattle Mariners can't be counted out based on head-to-head matchups.

Recent form: Seattle Mariners on a 2-game win streak, St. Louis Cardinals on a 2-game losing streak.

Based on starting pitching, Seattle Mariners holds the edge.

Seattle Mariners bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Andrés Muñoz 7.20 ERA, 17 K in 10.0 IP, Bryan Woo 2.25 ERA, 26 K in 32.0 IP.

St. Louis Cardinals bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Andre Pallante 4.26 ERA, 20 K in 25.1 IP, Dustin May 5.84 ERA, 20 K in 24.2 IP, George Soriano 4.35 ERA, 8 K in 10.1 IP.

Projected win probability: Seattle Mariners 54% vs St. Louis Cardinals 46%

Factors: Seattle Mariners's starter owns the lower ERA, St. Louis Cardinals's home-field advantage. Of course, baseball's inherent randomness means actual results may differ.

Workload comparison: Bryan Woo averages 6.4 IP per start vs. Matthew Liberatore at 5.4 IP. Getting six-plus innings from the starter significantly eases the bullpen burden.