Today's starting pitching matchup features Pittsburgh Pirates's Braxton Ashcraft (2-2, 3.09 ERA) against St. Louis Cardinals's Dustin May (3-4, 4.81 ERA).

Pittsburgh Pirates's Braxton Ashcraft posts an solid 3.09 ERA this season, while Dustin May has been shaky at 4.81. There is a clear gap in starting pitching quality.

Advanced metrics: Braxton Ashcraft — FIP 3.17, K% 25.6%, 55.3 IP / Dustin May — FIP 3.84, K% 17.1%, 48.7 IP

2026 season record: Pittsburgh Pirates 25-24 (.510), St. Louis Cardinals 28-20 (.583).

St. Louis Cardinals holds the edge in the season standings, though Pittsburgh Pirates can't be counted out based on head-to-head matchups.

Recent form: Pittsburgh Pirates on a 1-game win streak, St. Louis Cardinals on a 1-game losing streak.

Based on starting pitching, Pittsburgh Pirates holds the edge.

Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Braxton Ashcraft 3.09 ERA, 56K in 55.1IP, Bubba Chandler 5.14 ERA, 36K in 42.0IP.

St. Louis Cardinals bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Andre Pallante 4.04 ERA, 40K in 49.0IP, Dustin May 4.81 ERA, 35K in 48.2IP, George Soriano (Setup) 3.48 ERA, 17K in 20.2IP.

Projected win probability: Pittsburgh Pirates 55% vs St. Louis Cardinals 45%

Factors: Pittsburgh Pirates's starter owns the lower ERA, St. Louis Cardinals's home-field advantage. Of course, baseball's inherent randomness means actual results may differ.

Workload comparison: Braxton Ashcraft averages 6.1 IP per start vs. Dustin May at 5.4 IP. Getting six-plus innings from the starter significantly eases the bullpen burden.