Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals Preview
Today's Starting Matchup
Today's starting pitching matchup features Chicago Cubs's Ben Brown (1-2, 2.01 ERA) against St. Louis Cardinals's Kyle Leahy (5-3, 4.44 ERA).
Chicago Cubs's Ben Brown posts an elite 2.01 ERA this season, while Kyle Leahy has been league-average at 4.44. There is a clear gap in starting pitching quality.
Advanced metrics: Ben Brown — FIP 2.29, K% 26.4%, 44.7 IP / Kyle Leahy — FIP 4.97, K% 18.3%, 50.7 IP
Team Season Comparison
2026 season record: Chicago Cubs 31-27 (.534), St. Louis Cardinals 30-25 (.545).
Recent form: Chicago Cubs on a 1-game losing streak, St. Louis Cardinals on a 1-game win streak.
Based on starting pitching, Chicago Cubs holds the edge.
Bullpen Analysis
Chicago Cubs bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Ben Brown 2.01 ERA, 47K in 44.2IP, Caleb Thielbar 2.84 ERA, 15K in 12.2IP, Colin Rea 4.70 ERA, 49K in 59.1IP.
St. Louis Cardinals bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Andre Pallante 4.19 ERA, 46K in 58.0IP, Dustin May 4.57 ERA, 51K in 61.0IP, George Soriano (Setup) 3.18 ERA, 18K in 22.2IP.
Win Probability
Projected win probability: Chicago Cubs 57% vs St. Louis Cardinals 43%
Factors: Chicago Cubs's starter owns the lower ERA, St. Louis Cardinals's home-field advantage. Of course, baseball's inherent randomness means actual results may differ.
Key Tactical Points
Workload comparison: Ben Brown averages 11.2 IP per start vs. Kyle Leahy at 5.1 IP. Getting six-plus innings from the starter significantly eases the bullpen burden.