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| Team | 1 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| STL | - | 0 | 1 | 0 |
San Diego Padres
42.8%
St. Louis Cardinals
57.2%
Below this summary you'll find, in order: a head-to-head team stats comparison (runs, wOBA, OPS, ERA, WHIP), a deep dive on the two probable starters with FIP, BABIP, K% and BB%, a bullpen breakdown, a lineup view with each hitter's season sabermetric line, and finally our win-probability, moneyline, over/under, and run-line (-1.5) projections. The numbers are pulled live from the official MLB Stats API each time this page loads.
Our projections come from the StatScope v2.2 win-probability model. It blends Pythagorean expectation with starter FIP, bullpen ERA, lineup wOBA, a 30% weight on the last 30 days of form, Log5 matchup logic, a 6.6% home-field bonus, the park factor of Busch Stadium, and a 22% regression toward league average. The weights were grid-searched on 246 historical games (Brier score 0.2336), and the full methodology is documented on our methodology page. Remember: these are model estimates, not picks. Use them as one input alongside news, weather, and the sportsbook line — and always bet responsibly.
San Diego Padres Away Starter
IP
0.2
K
1
ER
0
H
1
BB
0
Pitches
15
W-L
1-2
Season IP
33.2
Season K
31
ERA
2.14
Season Record
| # | Player | Pos | AB | H | HR | RBI | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fernando Tatis Jr.Batter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| RF | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 2 | Samad TaylorBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| LF | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 3 | Jackson MerrillBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| CF | 1 | 1 | - | - | |||||||
| 4 | Manny MachadoBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 3B | - | 0 | - | 1 | |||||||
| 5 | Gavin SheetsBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| DH | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 6 | Xander BogaertsBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| SS | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 7 | Ty FranceBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 1B | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 8 | Will WagnerBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 2B | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 9 | Rodolfo DuránBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| C | - | 0 | - | - |
| Pitcher | IP | Pitches | H | R | ER | K | BB | HR | Result | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bradgley RodriguezPitcher - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Batters
| 0.2 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - |
Bench Pitchers (Did Not Pitch)
| Pitcher | IP | Pitches | H | R | ER | K | BB | HR | Result | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kyle LeahyPitcher - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Batters
| 1.0 | 19 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | - |
Bench Pitchers (Did Not Pitch)
padres edged out a 1-0 victory. A nail-biting 1-run game.
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StatScope Model v2.2— Pythagorean expectation, starter quality, recent form, home advantage
Moneyline
San Diego Padres
+134
Underdog
St. Louis Cardinals
-134
Favorite
Over / Under
8
Total Runs Line
4.3 + 3.7 = 8
Expected: San Diego Padres + St. Louis Cardinals
Run Line (-1.5)
San Diego Padres -1.5
Expected margin: -0.6 runs
Projected odds based on team stats, pitching matchup, and park factor. Not affiliated with any sportsbook.
St. Louis Cardinals Home Starter
IP
1.0
K
1
ER
1
H
1
BB
1
Pitches
19
W-L
5-3
Season IP
65.0
Season K
53
ERA
4.71
Season Record
| # | Player | Pos | AB | H | HR | RBI | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JJ WetherholtBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 2B | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 2 | Iván HerreraBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| DH | 1 | 1 | - | - | |||||||
| 3 | Alec BurlesonBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 1B | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 4 | Jordan WalkerBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| RF | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 5 | Lars NootbaarBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| LF | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 6 | Masyn WinnBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| SS | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 7 | Jimmy CrooksBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| C | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 8 | Blaze JordanBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 3B | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 9 | Nathan ChurchBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| CF | - | 0 | - | - |
Bot 1: San Diego Padres leads 1-0. St. Louis Cardinals needs to mount a rally.
2026 season
Avg wOBA
0.261
Avg OPS
0.588
Pitching FIP
3.73
Pitching K%
24.98%
▸FIP 3.50 or below: Adrian Morejon 2.21, Bradgley Rodriguez 2.71
▸Strikeout (K% 25%+): Adrian Morejon 28.1%, David Morgan 26.1%
Avg wOBA
0.347
Avg OPS
0.793
Pitching FIP
5.16
Pitching K%
18.60%
▸wOBA .350+: 3 players — elite offense
▸FIP 3.50 or below: Dustin May 3.01