Loading...
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| STL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | - | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Atlanta Braves
54.1%
St. Louis Cardinals
45.9%
Below this summary you'll find, in order: a head-to-head team stats comparison (runs, wOBA, OPS, ERA, WHIP), a deep dive on the two probable starters with FIP, BABIP, K% and BB%, a bullpen breakdown, a lineup view with each hitter's season sabermetric line, and finally our win-probability, moneyline, over/under, and run-line (-1.5) projections. The numbers are pulled live from the official MLB Stats API each time this page loads.
Our projections come from the StatScope v2.2 win-probability model. It blends Pythagorean expectation with starter FIP, bullpen ERA, lineup wOBA, a 30% weight on the last 30 days of form, Log5 matchup logic, a 6.6% home-field bonus, the park factor of Busch Stadium, and a 22% regression toward league average. The weights were grid-searched on 246 historical games (Brier score 0.2336), and the full methodology is documented on our methodology page. Remember: these are model estimates, not picks. Use them as one input alongside news, weather, and the sportsbook line — and always bet responsibly.
Atlanta Braves Away Starter
W-L
9-6
Season IP
98.0
Season K
117
ERA
2.20
Season Record
No lineup information available.
No pitching records available.
No pitching records available.
cardinals edged out a 2-1 victory. A nail-biting 1-run game.
Loading comments...
StatScope Model v2.2— Pythagorean expectation, starter quality, recent form, home advantage
Moneyline
Atlanta Braves
-118
Favorite
St. Louis Cardinals
+118
Underdog
Over / Under
8.5
Total Runs Line
4.9 + 3.5 = 8.4
Expected: Atlanta Braves + St. Louis Cardinals
Run Line (-1.5)
Atlanta Braves -1.5
Expected margin: -1.4 runs
Projected odds based on team stats, pitching matchup, and park factor. Not affiliated with any sportsbook.
St. Louis Cardinals Home Starter
W-L
7-4
Season IP
89.1
Season K
75
ERA
3.73
Season Record
No lineup information available.
St. Louis Cardinals squeaked out a narrow win over Atlanta Braves, 2-1. Tension ran high from start to finish in this one-run thriller.
2026 season
Avg wOBA
0.311
Avg OPS
0.708
Pitching FIP
3.89
Pitching K%
25.32%
▸Power: Drake Baldwin 15HR
▸FIP 3.50 or below: Didier Fuentes 2.31, Chris Sale 2.81
▸Strikeout (K% 25%+): Didier Fuentes 27.5%, Chris Sale 29%, Danny Young 25%
Avg wOBA
0.310
Avg OPS
0.704
Pitching FIP
3.99
Pitching K%
18.40%
▸Power: Alec Burleson 15HR
▸FIP 3.50 or below: Dustin May 3.19