Today's starting pitching matchup features Cincinnati Reds's Hunter Greene (2-1, 6.06 ERA) against St. Louis Cardinals's Andre Pallante (10-6, 4.02 ERA).

St. Louis Cardinals's Andre Pallante posts an league-average 4.02 ERA this season, while Hunter Greene has been struggling at 6.06. There is a clear gap in starting pitching quality.

Advanced metrics: Hunter Greene — FIP 3.22, K% 38.2%, 16.3 IP / Andre Pallante — FIP 3.96, K% 16.9%, 105.3 IP

2026 season record: Cincinnati Reds 48-54 (.471), St. Louis Cardinals 52-51 (.505).

Run differential: Cincinnati Reds -61, St. Louis Cardinals -6. Both clubs are evenly matched in run production.

Recent form: Cincinnati Reds on a 3-game win streak, St. Louis Cardinals on a 2-game losing streak.

Based on starting pitching, St. Louis Cardinals holds the edge.

Cincinnati Reds bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Andrew Abbott 3.89 ERA, 90K in 111.0IP, Brady Singer 4.53 ERA, 88K in 103.1IP, Brock Burke (Setup) 2.74 ERA, 41K in 49.1IP.

St. Louis Cardinals bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Andre Pallante 4.02 ERA, 75K in 105.1IP, Dustin May 4.59 ERA, 103K in 104.0IP, George Soriano (Setup) 3.57 ERA, 41K in 45.1IP.

Projected win probability: Cincinnati Reds 38% vs St. Louis Cardinals 62%

Factors: St. Louis Cardinals's starter owns the lower ERA, St. Louis Cardinals's home-field advantage. Of course, baseball's inherent randomness means actual results may differ.

Workload comparison: Hunter Greene averages 5.4 IP per start vs. Andre Pallante at 5.5 IP. Getting six-plus innings from the starter significantly eases the bullpen burden.

Andre Pallante has allowed 10 HR this season — a concern against a lineup with extra-base power.