Miami Marlins vs Tampa Bay Rays Preview
Today's Starting Matchup
Today's starting pitching matchup features Miami Marlins's Eury Pérez (2-5, 4.94 ERA) against Tampa Bay Rays's Drew Rasmussen (3-1, 3.16 ERA).
Tampa Bay Rays's Drew Rasmussen posts an solid 3.16 ERA this season, while Eury Pérez has been shaky at 4.94. There is a clear gap in starting pitching quality.
Advanced metrics: Eury Pérez — FIP 4.83, K% 25.6%, 47.3 IP / Drew Rasmussen — FIP 3.71, K% 25.3%, 42.7 IP
Team Season Comparison
2026 season record: Miami Marlins 21-25 (.457), Tampa Bay Rays 29-15 (.659).
Tampa Bay Rays holds the edge in the season standings, though Miami Marlins can't be counted out based on head-to-head matchups.
Recent form: Miami Marlins on a 1-game win streak, Tampa Bay Rays on a 1-game losing streak.
Based on starting pitching, Tampa Bay Rays holds the edge.
Bullpen Analysis
Miami Marlins bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Andrew Nardi (Setup) 5.09 ERA, 19K in 17.2IP, Anthony Bender 3.57 ERA, 19K in 17.2IP.
Tampa Bay Rays bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Bryan Baker (Closer) 2.95 ERA, 23K in 18.1IP, Casey Legumina 3.79 ERA, 12K in 19.0IP, Cole Sulser 3.68 ERA, 16K in 22.0IP.
Win Probability
Projected win probability: Miami Marlins 41% vs Tampa Bay Rays 59%
Factors: Tampa Bay Rays's starter owns the lower ERA, Tampa Bay Rays's home-field advantage. Of course, baseball's inherent randomness means actual results may differ.
Key Tactical Points
Workload comparison: Eury Pérez averages 5.3 IP per start vs. Drew Rasmussen at 5.3 IP. Getting six-plus innings from the starter significantly eases the bullpen burden.