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| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| TB | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | - | 7 | 14 | 0 |
Seattle Mariners
39.7%
Tampa Bay Rays
60.3%
Below this summary you'll find, in order: a head-to-head team stats comparison (runs, wOBA, OPS, ERA, WHIP), a deep dive on the two probable starters with FIP, BABIP, K% and BB%, a bullpen breakdown, a lineup view with each hitter's season sabermetric line, and finally our win-probability, moneyline, over/under, and run-line (-1.5) projections. The numbers are pulled live from the official MLB Stats API each time this page loads.
Our projections come from the StatScope v2.2 win-probability model. It blends Pythagorean expectation with starter FIP, bullpen ERA, lineup wOBA, a 30% weight on the last 30 days of form, Log5 matchup logic, a 6.6% home-field bonus, the park factor of Tropicana Field, and a 22% regression toward league average. The weights were grid-searched on 246 historical games (Brier score 0.2336), and the full methodology is documented on our methodology page. Remember: these are model estimates, not picks. Use them as one input alongside news, weather, and the sportsbook line — and always bet responsibly.
Seattle Mariners Away Starter
W-L
3-7
Season IP
82.2
Season K
77
ERA
4.79
Season Record
No lineup information available.
No pitching records available.
No pitching records available.
rays crushed mariners 7-2. A 5-run blowout.
rays (14 H) significantly out-hit mariners (5 H).
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StatScope Model v2.2— Pythagorean expectation, starter quality, recent form, home advantage
Moneyline
Seattle Mariners
+152
Underdog
Tampa Bay Rays
-152
Favorite
Over / Under
8
Total Runs Line
3.9 + 4.1 = 8
Expected: Seattle Mariners + Tampa Bay Rays
Run Line (-1.5)
Tampa Bay Rays -1.5
Expected margin: +0.2 runs
Projected odds based on team stats, pitching matchup, and park factor. Not affiliated with any sportsbook.
Tampa Bay Rays Home Starter
W-L
7-2
Season IP
100.0
Season K
61
ERA
2.61
Season Record
No lineup information available.
Tampa Bay Rays topped Seattle Mariners 7-2. A comfortable 5-run margin reflected Tampa Bay Rays's steady command of the game.
The turning point came in the bottom of the 7th. Tampa Bay Rays pushed across 3 runs to seize control of the game.
2026 season
Avg wOBA
0.269
Avg OPS
0.600
Pitching FIP
3.47
Pitching K%
26.95%
▸Power: Dominic Canzone 15HR
▸High K% (28%+): 3 players
▸FIP 3.50 or below: Bryan Woo 3.05, Andrés Muñoz 3.07, Bryce Miller 3.12
▸Strikeout (K% 25%+): Andrés Muñoz 34%, Bryce Miller 30.2%
Avg wOBA
0.306
Avg OPS
0.692
Pitching FIP
5.48
Pitching K%
23.48%
▸FIP 3.50 or below: Bryan Baker 2.55
▸Strikeout (K% 25%+): Bryan Baker 29.3%, Cam Booser 32.1%