Miami Marlins vs Toronto Blue Jays Preview
Today's Starting Matchup
Today's starting pitching matchup features Miami Marlins's Eury Pérez (3-6, 4.91 ERA) against Toronto Blue Jays's Kevin Gausman (4-3, 3.23 ERA).
Toronto Blue Jays's Kevin Gausman posts an solid 3.23 ERA this season, while Eury Pérez has been shaky at 4.91. There is a clear gap in starting pitching quality.
Advanced metrics: Eury Pérez — FIP 5.03, K% 25.2%, 58.7 IP / Kevin Gausman — FIP 2.88, K% 23.6%, 64.0 IP
Team Season Comparison
2026 season record: Miami Marlins 26-30 (.464), Toronto Blue Jays 26-29 (.473).
Recent form: Miami Marlins on a 1-game losing streak, Toronto Blue Jays on a 1-game win streak.
Based on starting pitching, Toronto Blue Jays holds the edge.
Bullpen Analysis
Miami Marlins bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Andrew Nardi (Setup) 5.06 ERA, 25K in 21.1IP, Anthony Bender 3.38 ERA, 23K in 21.1IP, Cade Gibson 7.71 ERA, 8K in 7.0IP.
Toronto Blue Jays bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Braydon Fisher (Setup) 2.64 ERA, 32K in 30.2IP.
Win Probability
Projected win probability: Miami Marlins 42% vs Toronto Blue Jays 58%
Factors: Toronto Blue Jays's starter owns the lower ERA, Toronto Blue Jays's home-field advantage. Of course, baseball's inherent randomness means actual results may differ.
Key Tactical Points
Workload comparison: Eury Pérez averages 5.3 IP per start vs. Kevin Gausman at 5.8 IP. Getting six-plus innings from the starter significantly eases the bullpen burden.
Eury Pérez has allowed 11 HR this season — a concern against a lineup with extra-base power.