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| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEX | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 2 |
| TOR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 1 |
Texas Rangers
57.9%
Toronto Blue Jays
42.1%
Below this summary you'll find, in order: a head-to-head team stats comparison (runs, wOBA, OPS, ERA, WHIP), a deep dive on the two probable starters with FIP, BABIP, K% and BB%, a bullpen breakdown, a lineup view with each hitter's season sabermetric line, and finally our win-probability, moneyline, over/under, and run-line (-1.5) projections. The numbers are pulled live from the official MLB Stats API each time this page loads.
Our projections come from the StatScope v2.2 win-probability model. It blends Pythagorean expectation with starter FIP, bullpen ERA, lineup wOBA, a 30% weight on the last 30 days of form, Log5 matchup logic, a 6.6% home-field bonus, the park factor of Rogers Centre, and a 22% regression toward league average. The weights were grid-searched on 246 historical games (Brier score 0.2336), and the full methodology is documented on our methodology page. Remember: these are model estimates, not picks. Use them as one input alongside news, weather, and the sportsbook line — and always bet responsibly.
Texas Rangers Away Starter
W-L
2-6
Season IP
80.0
Season K
70
ERA
3.83
Season Record
No lineup information available.
No pitching records available.
No pitching records available.
rangers edged out a 3-2 victory. A nail-biting 1-run game.
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StatScope Model v2.2— Pythagorean expectation, starter quality, recent form, home advantage
Moneyline
Texas Rangers
-138
Favorite
Toronto Blue Jays
+138
Underdog
Over / Under
11.5
Total Runs Line
7.3 + 4.3 = 11.6
Expected: Texas Rangers + Toronto Blue Jays
Run Line (-1.5)
Texas Rangers -1.5
Expected margin: -3 runs
Projected odds based on team stats, pitching matchup, and park factor. Not affiliated with any sportsbook.
Toronto Blue Jays Home Starter
W-L
0-0
Season IP
9.0
Season K
6
ERA
6.00
Season Record
No lineup information available.
Texas Rangers squeaked out a narrow win over Toronto Blue Jays, 3-2. Tension ran high from start to finish in this one-run thriller.
2026 season
Avg wOBA
0.309
Avg OPS
0.696
Pitching FIP
3.84
Pitching K%
24.60%
▸FIP 3.50 or below: Jacob Latz 2.74
▸Strikeout (K% 25%+): Jacob Latz 28%, Jacob deGrom 29.9%
Avg wOBA
0.304
Avg OPS
0.695
Pitching FIP
3.27
Pitching K%
29.85%
▸FIP 3.50 or below: Dylan Cease 2.36, Jeff Hoffman 2.73
▸Strikeout (K% 25%+): Dylan Cease 36.7%, Jeff Hoffman 35.5%