New York Mets vs Toronto Blue Jays Preview
Today's Starting Matchup
Today's starting pitching matchup features New York Mets's Sean Manaea (1-2, 4.87 ERA) against Toronto Blue Jays's Trey Yesavage (3-3, 3.56 ERA).
Toronto Blue Jays's Trey Yesavage posts an league-average 3.56 ERA this season, while Sean Manaea has been shaky at 4.87. There is a clear gap in starting pitching quality.
Advanced metrics: Sean Manaea — FIP 3.68, K% 23.4%, 57.3 IP / Trey Yesavage — FIP 3.79, K% 23.3%, 60.7 IP
Career H2H Analysis
Sean Manaea has allowed high batting averages to several Toronto Blue Jays hitters: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (3/6, .500), George Springer (12/39, .308). These matchups bear watching.
Sean Manaea carries a .291 career BAA (16-for-55) vs. Toronto Blue Jays's top of the order — a neutral track record.
Team Season Comparison
2026 season record: New York Mets 35-49 (.417), Toronto Blue Jays 39-45 (.464).
Recent form: New York Mets on a 1-game losing streak, Toronto Blue Jays on a 6-game losing streak.
Based on starting pitching, Toronto Blue Jays holds the edge.
Bullpen Analysis
New York Mets bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: A.J. Minter 0.00 ERA, 10K in 12.2IP, Austin Warren 2.56 ERA, 34K in 31.2IP, Brooks Raley (Setup) 2.40 ERA, 32K in 30.0IP.
Toronto Blue Jays bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Adam Macko 1.26 ERA, 14K in 14.1IP, Braydon Fisher (Setup) 3.35 ERA, 42K in 43.0IP, Dylan Cease 2.75 ERA, 118K in 78.2IP.
Win Probability
Projected win probability: New York Mets 43% vs Toronto Blue Jays 57%
Factors: Toronto Blue Jays's starter owns the lower ERA, Toronto Blue Jays's home-field advantage. Of course, baseball's inherent randomness means actual results may differ.
Key Tactical Points
Workload comparison: Sean Manaea averages 19.1 IP per start vs. Trey Yesavage at 5.5 IP. Getting six-plus innings from the starter significantly eases the bullpen burden.