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| Team | 1 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | - | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TOR | - | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Tampa Bay Rays
44.1%
Toronto Blue Jays
55.9%
Below this summary you'll find, in order: a head-to-head team stats comparison (runs, wOBA, OPS, ERA, WHIP), a deep dive on the two probable starters with FIP, BABIP, K% and BB%, a bullpen breakdown, a lineup view with each hitter's season sabermetric line, and finally our win-probability, moneyline, over/under, and run-line (-1.5) projections. The numbers are pulled live from the official MLB Stats API each time this page loads.
Our projections come from the StatScope v2.2 win-probability model. It blends Pythagorean expectation with starter FIP, bullpen ERA, lineup wOBA, a 30% weight on the last 30 days of form, Log5 matchup logic, a 6.6% home-field bonus, the park factor of Rogers Centre, and a 22% regression toward league average. The weights were grid-searched on 246 historical games (Brier score 0.2336), and the full methodology is documented on our methodology page. Remember: these are model estimates, not picks. Use them as one input alongside news, weather, and the sportsbook line — and always bet responsibly.
Tampa Bay Rays Away Starter
W-L
8-2
Season IP
105.1
Season K
62
ERA
2.65
Season Record
| # | Player | Pos | AB | H | HR | RBI | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yandy DíazBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| DH | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 2 | Jonathan ArandaBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 1B | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 3 | Junior CamineroBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 3B | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 4 | Cedric MullinsBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| CF | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 5 | Chandler SimpsonBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| LF | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 6 | Victor Mesa Jr.Batter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| RF | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 7 | Richie PalaciosBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 2B | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 8 | Nick FortesBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| C | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 9 | Taylor WallsBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| SS | - | 0 | - | - |
| Pitcher | IP | Pitches | H | R | ER | K | BB | HR | Result | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nick MartinezPitcher - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Batters
| - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Bench Pitchers (Did Not Pitch)
| Pitcher | IP | Pitches | H | R | ER | K | BB | HR | Result | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dylan CeasePitcher - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Batters
| - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Bench Pitchers (Did Not Pitch)
rays 0 - 0 blue-jays. A standard game between both teams.
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StatScope Model v2.2— Pythagorean expectation, starter quality, recent form, home advantage
Moneyline
Tampa Bay Rays
+127
Underdog
Toronto Blue Jays
-127
Favorite
Over / Under
7.5
Total Runs Line
3.3 + 4.3 = 7.6
Expected: Tampa Bay Rays + Toronto Blue Jays
Run Line (-1.5)
Toronto Blue Jays -1.5
Expected margin: +1 runs
Projected odds based on team stats, pitching matchup, and park factor. Not affiliated with any sportsbook.
Toronto Blue Jays Home Starter
W-L
6-4
Season IP
98.1
Season K
148
ERA
2.56
Season Record
| # | Player | Pos | AB | H | HR | RBI | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ernie ClementBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 2B | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 2 | Nathan LukesBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| RF | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 3 | Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Batter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 1B | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 4 | George SpringerBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| DH | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 5 | Kazuma OkamotoBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 3B | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 6 | Daulton VarshoBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| CF | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 7 | Alejandro KirkBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| C | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 8 | Andrés GiménezBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| SS | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 9 | Myles StrawBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| LF | - | 0 | - | - |
Top 1: Tampa Bay Rays and Toronto Blue Jays are locked in a tight battle, knotted at 0-0.
2026 season
Avg wOBA
0.305
Avg OPS
0.689
Pitching FIP
4.52
Pitching K%
24.17%
▸FIP 3.50 or below: Bryan Baker 2.55, Cam Booser 3.26
▸Strikeout (K% 25%+): Bryan Baker 29.3%, Cam Booser 34.8%
Avg wOBA
0.299
Avg OPS
0.681
Pitching FIP
5.33
Pitching K%
29.75%
▸FIP 3.50 or below: Dylan Cease 2.18, Jeff Hoffman 2.63
▸Strikeout (K% 25%+): Dylan Cease 36.9%, Jeff Hoffman 35.1%, Braydon Fisher 25.1%