Today's starting pitching matchup features St. Louis Cardinals's Matthew Liberatore (5-8, 5.26 ERA) against Toronto Blue Jays's Max Scherzer (1-4, 9.49 ERA).

St. Louis Cardinals's Matthew Liberatore posts an shaky 5.26 ERA this season, while Max Scherzer has been struggling at 9.49. There is a clear gap in starting pitching quality.

Advanced metrics: Matthew Liberatore — FIP 4.84, K% 21.9%, 102.7 IP / Max Scherzer — FIP 8.21, K% 15.4%, 24.7 IP

2026 season record: St. Louis Cardinals 54-57 (.486), Toronto Blue Jays 52-59 (.468).

Run differential: St. Louis Cardinals -20, Toronto Blue Jays -54. Both clubs are evenly matched in run production.

Recent form: St. Louis Cardinals on a 3-game losing streak, Toronto Blue Jays on a 3-game win streak.

Based on starting pitching, St. Louis Cardinals holds the edge.

St. Louis Cardinals bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Andre Pallante 3.72 ERA, 86K in 118.2IP, Dustin May 4.38 ERA, 106K in 109.0IP, George Soriano (Setup) 3.38 ERA, 46K in 48.0IP.

Toronto Blue Jays bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Braydon Fisher (Setup) 4.08 ERA, 53K in 53.0IP, Brendon Little 13.50 ERA, 14K in 10.2IP.

Projected win probability: St. Louis Cardinals 84% vs Toronto Blue Jays 16%

Factors: St. Louis Cardinals's starter owns the lower ERA, Toronto Blue Jays's home-field advantage. Of course, baseball's inherent randomness means actual results may differ.

Workload comparison: Matthew Liberatore averages 4.9 IP per start vs. Max Scherzer at 3.5 IP. Getting six-plus innings from the starter significantly eases the bullpen burden.

Matthew Liberatore has allowed 19 HR this season — a concern against a lineup with extra-base power.