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| Team | 1 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | - | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TOR | - | 0 | 0 | 0 |
St. Louis Cardinals
42.2%
Toronto Blue Jays
57.8%
Below this summary you'll find, in order: a head-to-head team stats comparison (runs, wOBA, OPS, ERA, WHIP), a deep dive on the two probable starters with FIP, BABIP, K% and BB%, a bullpen breakdown, a lineup view with each hitter's season sabermetric line, and finally our win-probability, moneyline, over/under, and run-line (-1.5) projections. The numbers are pulled live from the official MLB Stats API each time this page loads.
Our projections come from the StatScope v2.2 win-probability model. It blends Pythagorean expectation with starter FIP, bullpen ERA, lineup wOBA, a 30% weight on the last 30 days of form, Log5 matchup logic, a 6.6% home-field bonus, the park factor of Rogers Centre, and a 22% regression toward league average. The weights were grid-searched on 246 historical games (Brier score 0.2336), and the full methodology is documented on our methodology page. Remember: these are model estimates, not picks. Use them as one input alongside news, weather, and the sportsbook line — and always bet responsibly.
St. Louis Cardinals Away Starter
No season data available
Toronto Blue Jays Home Starter
W-L
4-10
Season IP
121.2
Season K
123
ERA
4.51
Season Record
| # | Player | Pos | AB | H | HR | RBI | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JJ WetherholtBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 2B | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 2 | Jordan WalkerBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| RF | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 3 | Alec BurlesonBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 1B | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 4 | Iván HerreraBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| DH | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 5 | Lars NootbaarBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| LF | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 6 | Masyn WinnBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| SS | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 7 | Nathan ChurchBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| CF | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 8 | Blaze JordanBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 3B | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 9 | Jimmy CrooksBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| C | - | 0 | - | - |
| Pitcher | IP | Pitches | H | R | ER | K | BB | HR | Result | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Quinn MathewsPitcher - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Batters
| - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Bench Pitchers (Did Not Pitch)
| Pitcher | IP | Pitches | H | R | ER | K | BB | HR | Result | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kevin GausmanPitcher - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Batters
| - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Bench Pitchers (Did Not Pitch)
cardinals 0 - 0 blue-jays. A standard game between both teams.
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StatScope Model v2.2— Pythagorean expectation, starter quality, recent form, home advantage
Moneyline
St. Louis Cardinals
+137
Underdog
Toronto Blue Jays
-137
Favorite
Over / Under
8.5
Total Runs Line
4.3 + 4.2 = 8.5
Expected: St. Louis Cardinals + Toronto Blue Jays
Run Line (-1.5)
Even -1.5
Expected margin: -0.1 runs
Projected odds based on team stats, pitching matchup, and park factor. Not affiliated with any sportsbook.
| # | Player | Pos | AB | H | HR | RBI | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Luis UríasBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 2B | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 2 | Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Batter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 1B | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 3 | Kazuma OkamotoBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 3B | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 4 | George SpringerBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| DH | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 5 | Alejandro KirkBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| C | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 6 | Daulton VarshoBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| CF | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 7 | Ernie ClementBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| SS | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 8 | Myles StrawBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| RF | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 9 | Davis SchneiderBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| LF | - | 0 | - | - |
Top 1: St. Louis Cardinals and Toronto Blue Jays are locked in a tight battle, knotted at 0-0.
2026 season
Avg wOBA
0.308
Avg OPS
0.698
Pitching FIP
3.89
Pitching K%
19.78%
▸Power: Alec Burleson 15HR, JJ Wetherholt 16HR
▸FIP 3.50 or below: Dustin May 3.15
Avg wOBA
0.294
Avg OPS
0.664
Pitching FIP
4.32
Pitching K%
25.45%
▸FIP 3.50 or below: Dylan Cease 2.3, Chad Dallas 3.1
▸Strikeout (K% 25%+): Dylan Cease 36.2%, Brendon Little 25.5%