Today's starting pitching matchup features Baltimore Orioles's Chris Bassitt (3-2, 5.21 ERA) against Washington Nationals's Cade Cavalli (1-2, 4.02 ERA).

Washington Nationals's Cade Cavalli posts an league-average 4.02 ERA this season, while Chris Bassitt has been shaky at 5.21. There is a clear gap in starting pitching quality.

Advanced metrics: Chris Bassitt — FIP 4.65, K% 14.5%, 38.0 IP / Cade Cavalli — FIP 3.17, K% 23.2%, 40.3 IP

2026 season record: Baltimore Orioles 20-25 (.444), Washington Nationals 22-23 (.489).

Recent form: Baltimore Orioles on a 1-game losing streak, Washington Nationals on a 1-game win streak.

Based on starting pitching, Washington Nationals holds the edge.

Baltimore Orioles bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Andrew Kittredge 10.80 ERA, 7K in 6.2IP, Anthony Nunez (Setup) 4.05 ERA, 22K in 20.0IP, Brandon Young 4.15 ERA, 19K in 26.0IP.

Washington Nationals bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Andrew Alvarez 2.45 ERA, 10K in 7.1IP, Brad Lord 3.21 ERA, 21K in 28.0IP, Cade Cavalli 4.02 ERA, 44K in 40.1IP.

Projected win probability: Baltimore Orioles 43% vs Washington Nationals 57%

Factors: Washington Nationals's starter owns the lower ERA, Washington Nationals's home-field advantage. Of course, baseball's inherent randomness means actual results may differ.

Workload comparison: Chris Bassitt averages 5.4 IP per start vs. Cade Cavalli at 4.5 IP. Getting six-plus innings from the starter significantly eases the bullpen burden.