Today's starting pitching matchup features New York Mets's David Peterson (2-4, 5.40 ERA) against Washington Nationals's Cade Cavalli (2-2, 4.05 ERA).

Washington Nationals's Cade Cavalli posts an league-average 4.05 ERA this season, while David Peterson has been shaky at 5.40. There is a clear gap in starting pitching quality.

Advanced metrics: David Peterson — FIP 2.96, K% 22.7%, 43.3 IP / Cade Cavalli — FIP 3.38, K% 24.1%, 46.7 IP

2026 season record: New York Mets 21-28 (.429), Washington Nationals 25-25 (.500).

Washington Nationals holds the edge in the season standings, though New York Mets can't be counted out based on head-to-head matchups.

Recent form: New York Mets on a 2-game losing streak, Washington Nationals on a 2-game win streak.

Based on starting pitching, Washington Nationals holds the edge.

New York Mets bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Austin Warren 1.72 ERA, 16K in 15.2IP, Brooks Raley (Setup) 1.47 ERA, 21K in 18.1IP, Christian Scott 4.12 ERA, 25K in 19.2IP.

Washington Nationals bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Andrew Alvarez 3.18 ERA, 15K in 11.1IP, Brad Lord 3.09 ERA, 26K in 32.0IP, Cade Cavalli 4.05 ERA, 52K in 46.2IP.

Projected win probability: New York Mets 42% vs Washington Nationals 58%

Factors: Washington Nationals's starter owns the lower ERA, Washington Nationals's home-field advantage. Of course, baseball's inherent randomness means actual results may differ.

Workload comparison: David Peterson averages 8.7 IP per start vs. Cade Cavalli at 4.7 IP. Getting six-plus innings from the starter significantly eases the bullpen burden.