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| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 0 |
| WSH | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Kansas City Royals
39.8%
Washington Nationals
60.2%
Below this summary you'll find, in order: a head-to-head team stats comparison (runs, wOBA, OPS, ERA, WHIP), a deep dive on the two probable starters with FIP, BABIP, K% and BB%, a bullpen breakdown, a lineup view with each hitter's season sabermetric line, and finally our win-probability, moneyline, over/under, and run-line (-1.5) projections. The numbers are pulled live from the official MLB Stats API each time this page loads.
Our projections come from the StatScope v2.2 win-probability model. It blends Pythagorean expectation with starter FIP, bullpen ERA, lineup wOBA, a 30% weight on the last 30 days of form, Log5 matchup logic, a 6.6% home-field bonus, the park factor of Nationals Park, and a 22% regression toward league average. The weights were grid-searched on 246 historical games (Brier score 0.2336), and the full methodology is documented on our methodology page. Remember: these are model estimates, not picks. Use them as one input alongside news, weather, and the sportsbook line — and always bet responsibly.
Kansas City Royals Away Starter
IP
5.0
K
4
ER
0
H
3
BB
0
Pitches
72
W-L
1-3
Season IP
37.0
Season K
32
ERA
5.35
Season Record
| # | Player | Pos | AB | H | HR | RBI | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carter JensenBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| C | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| 2 | Bobby Witt Jr.Batter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| SS | 3 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 3 | Jac CaglianoneBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 1B | 3 | 1 | - | - | |||||||
| 4 | Lane ThomasBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| CF | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| 5 | Michael MasseyBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 2B | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| 6 | Salvador PerezBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| DH | 3 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 7 | John RaveBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| RF | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| 8 | Nick LoftinBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 3B | 2 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 9 | Isaac CollinsBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| LF | 2 | 1 | - | 1 |
| Pitcher | IP | Pitches | H | R | ER | K | BB | HR | Result | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Luinder AvilaPitcher - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Batters
| 5.0 | 72 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | - |
Bench Pitchers (Did Not Pitch)
| Pitcher | IP | Pitches | H | R | ER | K | BB | HR | Result | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Zack LittellPitcher - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Batters
| 5.0 | 99 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | - | |||||||
Mitchell ParkerPitcher - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Batters
| 0.1 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - |
Bench Pitchers (Did Not Pitch)
royals crushed nationals 5-0. A 5-run blowout.
Carter Jensen (royals) went 3-for-3 (incl. 1 HR) with 1 RBI.
royals (9 H) significantly out-hit nationals (3 H).
1 relievers used, 0.1 IP total, 1 runs allowed.
nationals bullpen ERA: 27.00 (0.3 IP)
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StatScope Model v2.2— Pythagorean expectation, starter quality, recent form, home advantage
Moneyline
Kansas City Royals
+151
Underdog
Washington Nationals
-151
Favorite
Over / Under
12
Total Runs Line
5.9 + 6 = 11.9
Expected: Kansas City Royals + Washington Nationals
Run Line (-1.5)
Even -1.5
Expected margin: +0.1 runs
Projected odds based on team stats, pitching matchup, and park factor. Not affiliated with any sportsbook.
Washington Nationals Home Starter
IP
5.0
K
2
ER
4
H
7
BB
2
Pitches
99
W-L
6-5
Season IP
71.0
Season K
41
ERA
5.45
Season Record
| # | Player | Pos | AB | H | HR | RBI | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James WoodBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| RF | 2 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 2 | Luis García Jr.Batter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 1B | 2 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 3 | Curtis MeadBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 3B | 2 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 4 | CJ AbramsBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| SS | 2 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 5 | Dylan CrewsBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| CF | 2 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 6 | Daylen LileBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| LF | 2 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 7 | Keibert RuizBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| C | 2 | 1 | - | - | |||||||
| 8 | José TenaBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| DH | 2 | 1 | - | - | |||||||
| 9 | Nasim NuñezBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 2B | 2 | 1 | - | - |
Top 6: Kansas City Royals leads 5-0. Washington Nationals needs to mount a rally.
2026 season
Avg wOBA
0.329
Avg OPS
0.743
Pitching FIP
3.88
Pitching K%
24.45%
▸wOBA .350+: 2 players — elite offense
▸High K% (28%+): 3 players
▸FIP 3.50 or below: Daniel Lynch IV 3.26
▸Strikeout (K% 25%+): Beck Way 33.3%
Avg wOBA
0.310
Avg OPS
0.695
Pitching FIP
3.65
Pitching K%
23.78%
▸wOBA .350+: 2 players — elite offense
▸FIP 3.50 or below: Andrew Alvarez 3.1, Cade Cavalli 3.42
▸Strikeout (K% 25%+): Andrew Alvarez 25.6%, Clayton Beeter 25.3%