Today's starting pitching matchup features Houston Astros's Mike Burrows (4-8, 5.58 ERA) against Washington Nationals's Miles Mikolas (2-7, 5.44 ERA).

Both starters carry similar ERAs, setting the stage for a potential pitchers' duel. WHIP: Mike Burrows 1.51, Miles Mikolas 1.29.

Advanced metrics: Mike Burrows — FIP 5.47, K% 18.1%, 90.3 IP / Miles Mikolas — FIP 5.36, K% 13.2%, 84.3 IP

2026 season record: Houston Astros 45-47 (.489), Washington Nationals 46-45 (.505).

Recent form: Houston Astros on a 2-game win streak, Washington Nationals on a 2-game losing streak.

Based on starting pitching, Washington Nationals holds the edge.

Houston Astros bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: AJ Blubaugh (Setup) 3.36 ERA, 53K in 56.1IP, Bryan Abreu (Closer) 5.90 ERA, 37K in 29.0IP, Bryan King (Closer) 2.08 ERA, 30K in 39.0IP.

Washington Nationals bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Andrew Alvarez 3.05 ERA, 48K in 41.1IP, Brad Lord (Setup) 3.88 ERA, 52K in 58.0IP, Cade Cavalli 3.88 ERA, 105K in 92.2IP.

Projected win probability: Houston Astros 47% vs Washington Nationals 53%

Factors: Washington Nationals's starter owns the lower ERA, Washington Nationals's home-field advantage. Of course, baseball's inherent randomness means actual results may differ.

Workload comparison: Mike Burrows averages 5.6 IP per start vs. Miles Mikolas at 12.0 IP. Getting six-plus innings from the starter significantly eases the bullpen burden.

Mike Burrows has allowed 19 HR this season — a concern against a lineup with extra-base power.