Loading...
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| WSH | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Atlanta Braves
49.1%
Washington Nationals
50.9%
Below this summary you'll find, in order: a head-to-head team stats comparison (runs, wOBA, OPS, ERA, WHIP), a deep dive on the two probable starters with FIP, BABIP, K% and BB%, a bullpen breakdown, a lineup view with each hitter's season sabermetric line, and finally our win-probability, moneyline, over/under, and run-line (-1.5) projections. The numbers are pulled live from the official MLB Stats API each time this page loads.
Our projections come from the StatScope v2.2 win-probability model. It blends Pythagorean expectation with starter FIP, bullpen ERA, lineup wOBA, a 30% weight on the last 30 days of form, Log5 matchup logic, a 6.6% home-field bonus, the park factor of Nationals Park, and a 22% regression toward league average. The weights were grid-searched on 246 historical games (Brier score 0.2336), and the full methodology is documented on our methodology page. Remember: these are model estimates, not picks. Use them as one input alongside news, weather, and the sportsbook line — and always bet responsibly.
Atlanta Braves Away Starter
IP
3.0
K
1
ER
0
H
0
BB
0
Pitches
26
W-L
9-5
Season IP
131.2
Season K
104
ERA
3.62
Season Record
| # | Player | Pos | AB | H | HR | RBI | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Drake BaldwinBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| DH | 2 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 2 | Ronald Acuña Jr.Batter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| RF | 2 | 1 | - | - | |||||||
| 3 | Matt OlsonBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 1B | 2 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 4 | Ozzie AlbiesBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 2B | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 5 | Michael Harris IIBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| CF | 2 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 6 | Sean MurphyBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| C | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 7 | Mike YastrzemskiBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| LF | 1 | 1 | - | - | |||||||
| 8 | Austin RileyBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 3B | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 9 | Ha-Seong KimBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| SS | 1 | 0 | - | - |
| Pitcher | IP | Pitches | H | R | ER | K | BB | HR | Result | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Grant HolmesPitcher - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Batters
| 3.0 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - |
Bench Pitchers (Did Not Pitch)
| Pitcher | IP | Pitches | H | R | ER | K | BB | HR | Result | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Brad LordPitcher - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Batters
| 3.1 | 55 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | - |
Bench Pitchers (Did Not Pitch)
braves 0 - 0 nationals. A standard game between both teams.
Loading comments...
StatScope Model v2.2— Pythagorean expectation, starter quality, recent form, home advantage
Moneyline
Atlanta Braves
+104
Underdog
Washington Nationals
-104
Favorite
Over / Under
10.5
Total Runs Line
4.9 + 5.5 = 10.4
Expected: Atlanta Braves + Washington Nationals
Run Line (-1.5)
Washington Nationals -1.5
Expected margin: +0.6 runs
Projected odds based on team stats, pitching matchup, and park factor. Not affiliated with any sportsbook.
Washington Nationals Home Starter
IP
3.1
K
6
ER
0
H
2
BB
1
Pitches
55
W-L
5-2
Season IP
73.0
Season K
70
ERA
3.58
Season Record
| # | Player | Pos | AB | H | HR | RBI | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James WoodBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| RF | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 2 | Abimelec OrtizBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| DH | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 3 | Dylan CrewsBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| CF | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 4 | CJ AbramsBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 2B | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 5 | Andrés ChaparroBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 3B | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 6 | Daylen LileBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| LF | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 7 | Yohandy MoralesBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| 1B | 1 | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 8 | Harry FordBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| C | - | 0 | - | - | |||||||
| 9 | Nasim NuñezBatter - Career H2H Stats Career Stats vs Opposing Pitchers
| SS | 1 | 0 | - | - |
Bot 4: Atlanta Braves and Washington Nationals are locked in a tight battle, knotted at 0-0.
2026 season
Avg wOBA
0.299
Avg OPS
0.680
Pitching FIP
3.79
Pitching K%
22.02%
▸wOBA .350+: 2 players — elite offense
▸Power: Drake Baldwin 22HR, Austin Riley 15HR
▸High K% (28%+): 2 players
▸FIP 3.50 or below: Chris Sale 2.2
▸Strikeout (K% 25%+): Chris Sale 30.7%
Avg wOBA
0.325
Avg OPS
0.745
Pitching FIP
4.04
Pitching K%
23.93%
▸wOBA .350+: 2 players — elite offense
▸Power: CJ Abrams 29HR, Daylen Lile 20HR
▸FIP 3.50 or below: Andrew Alvarez 3.38, Cade Cavalli 3.39
▸Strikeout (K% 25%+): Cade Cavalli 27.7%