Today's starting pitching matchup features Washington Nationals's Foster Griffin (5-2, 4.02 ERA) against Atlanta Braves's Martín Pérez (2-2, 2.85 ERA).

Atlanta Braves's Martín Pérez posts an solid 2.85 ERA this season, while Foster Griffin has been league-average at 4.02. There is a clear gap in starting pitching quality.

Advanced metrics: Foster Griffin — FIP 4.67, K% 22.8%, 56.0 IP / Martín Pérez — FIP 3.93, K% 23.3%, 41.0 IP

2026 season record: Washington Nationals 26-27 (.491), Atlanta Braves 36-17 (.679).

Atlanta Braves holds the edge in the season standings, though Washington Nationals can't be counted out based on head-to-head matchups.

Run differential: Washington Nationals -15, Atlanta Braves +103. Atlanta Braves boasts superior run production.

Recent form: Washington Nationals on a 1-game win streak, Atlanta Braves on a 1-game losing streak.

Based on starting pitching, Atlanta Braves holds the edge.

Washington Nationals bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Andrew Alvarez 3.18 ERA, 15K in 11.1IP, Brad Lord (Setup) 2.83 ERA, 29K in 35.0IP, Cade Cavalli 3.86 ERA, 61K in 53.2IP.

Atlanta Braves bullpen: 13 relievers on the active roster. Key arms: Bryce Elder 1.97 ERA, 60K in 68.2IP, Chris Sale 1.89 ERA, 72K in 62.0IP.

Projected win probability: Washington Nationals 44% vs Atlanta Braves 56%

Factors: Atlanta Braves's starter owns the lower ERA, Atlanta Braves's home-field advantage. Of course, baseball's inherent randomness means actual results may differ.

Workload comparison: Foster Griffin averages 5.6 IP per start vs. Martín Pérez at 6.8 IP. Getting six-plus innings from the starter significantly eases the bullpen burden.

Foster Griffin has allowed 10 HR this season — a concern against a lineup with extra-base power.